AlphaBet: RL Framework for LLM Event Forecasting Agents
October 14, 2026
AlphaBet is an agentic reinforcement learning framework that trains LLM policies to search, reason, and report event probabilities across multiple dates. It decomposes forecasting regret into evidence-acquisition and probability-reporting gaps to improve prediction accuracy.
HOW THIS AFFECTS YOU
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builderYou can implement this RL approach to build agents that actively seek evidence for predictions.
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researcherThis method provides a new way to supervise forecasting agents using proper scoring rules.